Two Chinese Vessels Collide: Subsequent Escalation?

 
Link is here. If that link times out (over weeks) also see other links, here and here. 
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Pete Comment

Following footage (above) of 2 Chinese ships colliding a humiliated China may use deep fake imagery editing to show "Philippine aggression" against a Chinese Coast Guard vessel. 31 seconds into the video above two crewman (probably killed :( can be seen in the bow of the smaller Chinese vessel immediately before the larger Chinese vessel collides with it.

Things could escalate between China and the Philippines.

Report Australia's ABC News reports August 11, 2025.

Two Chinese vessels have collided [on Monday August 11] in a dramatic incident in the South China Sea.

The incident left one boat severely damaged and the fate of some of its crew members unknown.

Philippines officials said the Chinese boats were chasing a Filipino vessel before the incident occurred.

...The incident occurred near the contested Scarborough Shoal [South China Sea] as the Philippine Coast Guard escorted boats distributing aid to fishermen in the area, spokesman [Philippine] Commodore Jay Tarriela said in a statement.

..."The (China Coast Guard vessel) CCG 3104, which was chasing the (Filipino coast guard vessel) BRP Suluan at high speed, performed a risky manoeuvre from the (Philippine) vessel's starboard quarter, leading to the impact with the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Navy warship [Number 164]"   [Commodore] Tarriella said in a statement.

...At a later press briefing, [Commodore] Tarriella said that crew members aboard the smaller Chinese vessel had been visible in its front section just before the collision.

"We're not sure whether they [Chinese sailors] were able to rescue those personnel who were in front prior to the collision. But we are hoping that these personnel are in good condition," he told reporters.

...He said the Chinese crew "never responded" to the Philippine ship's offer of assistance.

...China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not confirm or deny the collision when asked about it by [Agency France Press] AFP.

...Monday's incident is the latest in a series of confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost entirely despite an international ruling that the assertion has no legal basis.

More than 60 per cent of global maritime trade passes through the disputed waterway...

The collision (above) and result (caved in bow of Chinese Coast Guard vessel (below). Photos courtesy Philippine Coast Guard via AP.

India To Be Hit With 50% US Tariffs: Russian Oil

From ABC News, August 8. 2025, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-08/trump-leveraging-peacekeeping-tariff-deals-asia/105618294

"Just days after imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods, United States President Donald Trump has increased it by another 25 per cent.

The 50 per cent tariff is set to take effect in three weeks, and comes as Mr Trump pushes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

He has accused India of profiting from Russian oil and ignoring civilian deaths in Ukraine.

The announcement of further tariffs on India was the latest indication that Mr Trump has leveraged peacekeeping in trade deals.

...India's Foreign Ministry has said the country was being unfairly singled out over its purchase of Russian oil.

Hussain Nadim, international relations lecturer at George Washington University, said India's high tariffs were the "result of India running a multi-alignment foreign policy at the global stage, benefiting both from the US and Russia."

He said not only Russian oil deals, but India's reluctance to buy American defence equipment was part of the reason why India faces higher tariffs compared to peers in the region..." 

Upgraded Mogamis Good Purchase If No MAJOR (Aus-Only) Changes

Shawn C, Journalist/Editor from Singapore and fellow blogger on Submarine Matters, on August 6, 2026 raised a whole range of issues. And see 2. wispywood2344 below. I respond in turn.

Australia, on August 5, 2025, ordered 3 "new FFM" now more commonly called Upgraded Mogami frigates to be built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in Japan. Then 8 will be built at Henderson Shipyard, just south of Perth, Western Australia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mogami-class_frigate#Australia

1.  Shawn commented and with my additions in [...] brackets:

I think the [Upgraded] Mogami’s, [with 32 Mark 41 VLS] are a very sensible buy for the RAN, and am a little relieved that Australia did not choose the TKMS MEKO [with only 16 VLS]. 

I had the same misgivings about the [need for 90% redesign and never produced] Naval Group Attack-class [submarines] being chosen over the [already designed and in production] Japanese Soryu-class. Integration of Japanese [electronic] systems and weapons [also interoperable with the US and hence with Australia] should be less convoluted, and the Japanese are far more ‘eager’ to partner Australia and iron out bugs and other issues.

[The Upgraded Mogamis will fortunately be built also for the Japanese Navy. Yet there is a risk Australia may want Australia-only modifications for its Mogamis. Major modifications, like hull redesigns, usually spells years of delay and way overbudget. A quantitative example might be if the Upgraded Mogami design for Australia weighed 300 tonnes (ie. 6,500 tonnes full load) more than the 6.200 tonne full load Upgraded Mogami for the Japanese Navy. See right sidebar for "6.200 tonne" (full load)]

While Henderson, WA, currently does not have a good reputation due to [being caught up in the mainly Australian government caused] debacle of the Arafura-class OPV program, 

[The Arafura Program suffered from mission changes. Originally it was really conceived as a, coast guard style, refugee boat interception and accommodation vessel with minimal weapons. Then that mission has largely evaporated. Now commentators wish it had been built as a heavily armed corvette.]

It is still not as ‘bad’ as Australia’s, and ASC’s, screw ups with the Attack-class and Hobart-class, and we can only hope that the Hunter-class program is on track for delivery ‘after 2030’. [See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Australian_Navy#Ships_and_equipment ]

The [standard] Mogami-class program is currently in ‘hot’ production, with the 11th unit launched in July, and 12th unit, the final for the JMSDF, in the final stages of construction. This means that the [3 larger Upgraded Mogamis for Australia] could start module production in a matter of months. Common systems - the 127mm gun and Mk 41 VLS, will make it ‘relatively’ easy to integrate with [Australian made] CEA [see] CEAFAR radar and the Saab Australia Aegis combat management system. (I just realised that the CEAFAR, MK41 VLS and 5-inch gun could be recycled from retiring ANZACs) [Maybe, but their electronics may need to be later generation].

Regarding Australian Virginia boats. I really do not think the RAN will get any,
[I agree. Also the new US Chief of Navy, Admiral Daryl Claudie, has stated that low Virginia production implies none for Australia.] 

But with a bit of luck (and a lot of $$$) you could see USS Virginia (SSN-774)
[Oh no! An aging sub, only good for 10 more years, with more maintenance down time than younger subs.] and USS Texas (SSN-775) loaned to the RAN after 2030 [same], where they will be in their mid-20s, so will have about ten years left on their reactors. [See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class ]
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2.  wispywood2344, a Japanese researcher/blogger, on August 6, 2025 has kindly provided these excellent 2 videos above and below concerning Australia ordering the Upgraded Mogami frigates. wispywood2344 has been a friend for many years :)

UK Domestic Security Decisions re China a Total Mess

The video here and above, of July 3, 2025, is from an excellent new Youtube Channel MGG Geopolitics .

 
The words and links below are provided by MGG Geopolitics:

"The UK’s China Strategy Is a Total Mess. And in this video, [MGG Geopolitics is] making the case that it’s putting the country at risk.

This video exposes the deep contradictions in Britain’s China policy under Keir Starmer and the Labour government (although, as [MGG Geopolitics discusses] in the video, the problem also goes back to previous Conservative administrations). While UK officials accuse Beijing of espionage and political interference, they look set to greenlight a massive new Chinese embassy in London, right above critical communications infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Britain continues to court Chinese trade and investment with minimal security screening, even as MI5 and MI6 warn of a surge in Chinese intelligence activity. Is the UK sacrificing national security for economic convenience? [MGG Geopolitics also takes] a look at the UK’s latest national security strategy and the government’s controversial decision to leave China off its top-tier list of foreign influence threats (in addition to how Chinese espionage is expanding within the UK.)

00:25 The UK 00:26 An Incoherent Strategy 01:58 Growing Criticism 02:19 An Old Problem 02:43 The UK & The Global Order 03:09 Chinese Espionage in the UK 03:38 A Proposed Mega-Embassy 05:34 Trade or Security?

Here are some links for further reading in case it's of interest: The UK's National Security Strategy: https://www.gov.uk/government/publica... ISC report on China from 2023: https://isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-con... CSIS's excellent briefing on China's proposed mega-embassy: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-..."

Colby Review on Virginias to Australia: Clear Findings Unlikely Because...

The Colby Review https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/06/us-aukus-reviews-message-increase.html into not supplying Virginia SSNs to Australia, under AUKUS, is unlikely to generate clear findings because: 

-    a "no Virginias for Australia" result would encourage Australia to cease providing the A$800 million being paid every few months to the US Virginia and (and secretly the higher priority Columbia submarine) industrial base https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/23/australia-payment-us-aukus-trump-administration-review

and 

-   it is up to the "President of the Day" probably in 2031 (not a 2025 US Defense Department Review) to decide the US Navy needs all the Virginias the US has built or will build. Under US AUKUS legislation, the President of the day has to certify to Congress that any transfer of Virginia-class submarines to Australia would not degrade America's undersea capabilities. Otherwise, the transfer will not take place. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-16/aukus-risks-trump-review-defence-four-corners/105412740

Maiden launch of Australia's Gilmour Eris-1 Rocket a Partial Success

On July 30, 2025 Gilmour Space conducted the maiden test launch of its 23m tall, 30 tonne, Eris-1 rocket with 23 seconds of engine burn time and 14 seconds of flight. See video here and above.

It appears one of four of rocket motors propelling the first stage failed to reach full power. So Eris-1 didn't have sufficient thrust to fully take off. Instead, after clearing the launch pad it hovered, drifted, then crashed. The crash may have been due to gravity and/or the launch safety officer induced the crash to avoid more potentially dangerous hover-drifting.

So the launch from northern Queensland Australia of this ICBM size, dual-use capable, rocket was a partial success. This is even though its aim of using its 3 stages to go into orbit did not work the first time. Launch companies learn from what goes wrong.

CEO Adam Gilmour said in February 2025 that it was “almost unheard of” for a private rocket company to successfully launch to orbit on its first attempt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilmour_Space_Technologies#Eris-1_(Orbital_rocket)

For comparison see other, also real, launch failures in the early US space program from the great film, The Right Stuff  here and below.